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| What lies in store ? - Kishore Bhambhwani |
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| 17.09.2009: While we have been harping 16400 to 16800 levels since last two months, many investors could not believe it. Our next target for index is 12300. Now again, I dont think many would accept this. I do not rule out futher upside and market can cross even 17200, due to extreme heavy short covering. The DANGER / trigger factor for 12300 level is CHINA. If China resorts to selling its huge DOLLARS RESERVES which is equivalent to encashing cheques in hand, USA can face liquidity problems. This will lead the country to massive selling across the globe (we are considering an extreme sitaution here, kind of worst case sceanario) which can lead to fall in index to the tune of 20%. Also, if developing economies start looking up, we may see re-allocation of funds to those countries which also can trigger a fresh selling wave. THE DEGREE / IMPACT of this cannot be QUANTIFIED, but this lurking danger will be there. BEYOND 16800 we are in A CLIFFHANGER sitatution where we are aiming higher and higher, say 18000, 19800 but the HIGHER WE GO, THE MORE SCARY IT BECOMES and the PIT GETS DEEPER. DO NOT SAY WE DID NOT WARN YOUR.
Awaiting feed-back / comments on info@vistashares.com. Please mention subject "CLIFF-HANGER" ;-) |
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