# How Often Do Stocks Fall? What History Says About the Frequency and Size of Losses Source: https://www.vistashares.com/how-often-do-stocks-fall/ Published: 2026-11-13 | Updated: 2026-11-13 By Adam Patti, Chief Executive Officer, VistaShares | November 2026 Using a widely cited data set of S&P 500 total returns compiled by NYU Stern professor Aswath Damodaran, the index lost money in 26 of the 98 calendar years from 1928 through 2025, roughly one year in four. Most of those losses were smaller than 10%, but a handful were severe, including three years with losses greater than 30%. Within individual years, declines from peak to trough have been far more common than full-year losses, though this history describes the past only and is not a forecast. ## What data is used here? The figures below use annual total returns for the S&P 500, including dividends, from 1928 through 2025, as published by Aswath Damodaran of NYU's Stern School of Business, last updated in January 2026.[1] Calendar-year returns measure the change from the first trading day of January to the last trading day of December. Figures for intra-year declines come from separate sources, noted below. ## How often has the S&P 500 had a losing year? From 1928 through 2025, the S&P 500 had a negative total return in 26 of 98 calendar years, or about 27% of the time. Since 1950, it had a negative total return in 16 of 76 calendar years, about 21% of the time.[1] Losing years have appeared in every era of the data, including the Great Depression, the inflationary 1970s, the early 2000s and the 2008 financial crisis, as well as more recent years such as 2018 and 2022. ## How large were the losses? Of the 26 losing calendar years from 1928 through 2025, using total returns:[1] **14 years** had losses smaller than 10%. **6 years** had losses between 10% and 20%: 1940, 1941, 1957, 1973, 2001 and 2022. **3 years** had losses between 20% and 30%: 1930, 1974 and 2002. **3 years** had losses greater than 30%: 1931, 1937 and 2008. The worst calendar-year loss in the data set was a decline of 43.84% in 1931. The worst since 1950 was a decline of 36.55% in 2008.[1] Put another way, in about 12% of all calendar years the index lost more than 10%, and in about 6% it lost more than 20%. ## How often did losses come in consecutive years? Most losing years were followed by a gain the next year, but several streaks of consecutive losses appear in the data: four straight years from 1929 through 1932, three from 1939 through 1941, two in 1973 and 1974, and three from 2000 through 2002.[1] Consecutive losses matter because they compound, and because investors' experience of a downturn depends on its length as well as its depth. ## How often do declines happen within a year? Full-year returns hide much of the movement inside each year. J.P. Morgan Asset Management has reported that from 1980 through early 2025, the S&P 500's average intra-year decline from peak to trough was 14.1%, with a median of 10.3%, while annual price returns were positive in 34 of 45 years.[2] Fidelity has reported that from 1980 through 2024, the S&P 500 experienced a drop of 5% or more in 93% of calendar years and a drop of 10% or more in 47% of calendar years.[3] In other words, sizable declines within a year have been common, even in years that ended with gains. ## How do recoveries fit into the picture? The frequency of losing years tells only part of the story. After many losing years in the data, the following year produced a gain, though not always, as the consecutive losing streaks show.[1] Recovery periods have varied widely in length. After severe declines, such as those in the early 1930s, the early 2000s and 2008, it took several years for the index to return to its prior peak on a total return basis. Investors' experience therefore depends on the timing of their investments and withdrawals as well as on how often and how far markets fall. ## What are the caveats? **Calendar years are arbitrary.** Declines do not start in January or end in December. A decline that spans two calendar years may appear smaller in annual data than it was from peak to trough. **Total return versus price return.** The annual figures above include dividends. Many buffer ETFs reference price-return indexes, which exclude dividends, so their reference asset's returns differ from total returns. Intra-year figures from J.P. Morgan are price returns. **Outcome periods are not calendar years.** Buffer ETF outcome periods start on many different dates, so historical calendar-year results do not correspond to any fund's outcome periods. **The past does not predict the future.** Market conditions, valuations, interest rates and economic structure change over time. Historical frequencies describe what happened, not what lies ahead. ## How does this relate to buffer ETFs? Historical data can help investors understand the range of outcomes equity markets have produced and think about which ranges matter most to them. A buffer ETF absorbs losses within a stated range over a full outcome period and passes through losses beyond it, while capping gains. Understanding how often declines of different sizes have occurred can help frame how a buffer's range relates to past market behavior. It does not indicate how any fund would have performed or how one may perform, and buffer ETFs give up gains above the cap in years when markets rise strongly. Our articles on [how buffer ETFs work](https://www.vistashares.com/how-do-buffer-etfs-work/), [how to choose a buffer ETF](https://www.vistashares.com/how-to-choose-a-buffer-etf/) and [what happens when the index rises past the cap](https://www.vistashares.com/what-happens-when-index-rises-past-cap/) explain the trade-offs. More topics are covered in our [buffer ETF guide](https://www.vistashares.com/buffer-etf-guide/). Investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. ## Frequently asked questions ### How often does the S&P 500 lose money in a year? Based on Aswath Damodaran's data set of S&P 500 total returns, the index had a negative calendar-year return in 26 of 98 years from 1928 through 2025, about 27% of the time, and in 16 of 76 years since 1950, about 21% of the time. These figures describe the past and do not predict future results. ### What was the worst year for the S&P 500? In Damodaran's total return data, the worst calendar-year decline from 1928 through 2025 was 43.84% in 1931, during the Great Depression. Since 1950, the worst was 36.55% in 2008, during the financial crisis. Both years followed or accompanied severe economic downturns. ### How big is a typical decline within a year? J.P. Morgan Asset Management has reported an average intra-year peak-to-trough decline of about 14% for the S&P 500 since 1980, with a median of about 10%, based on price returns. Many years with such declines still ended with gains. Calendar-year returns alone understate this volatility. ### How often do stocks fall more than 20% in a year? From 1928 through 2025, the S&P 500's total return was worse than negative 20% in 6 of 98 calendar years, about 6% of the time, according to Damodaran's data. Declines of that size measured from peak to trough within shorter periods have been more frequent. ### Does history tell me what the market does next year? No. Historical frequencies describe what has happened in the past under conditions that may not repeat. Market returns depend on many factors that change over time, so past patterns are not a reliable forecast of future results. Planning around a range of outcomes is more useful. ### Why do calendar-year returns understate some declines? Declines rarely begin in January and end in December. A decline that starts late in one year and continues into the next is split across two calendar years, so each year may show a smaller loss than the full peak-to-trough drop. ## NOTES - Aswath Damodaran, "Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Real Estate: 1928-2025," NYU Stern School of Business (updated January 2026). Loss counts and ranges are VistaShares calculations from this data set. - J.P. Morgan Asset Management, "On the Minds of Investors: Outlook for US equities," S&P 500 intra-year declines versus calendar-year returns (price returns, 1980 to 2025 year to date). - Fidelity Investments, "Stock market outlook," based on calendar-year S&P 500 data from 1980 through 2024. ## IMPORTANT INFORMATION This material is provided for educational purposes only. It is not investment, legal or tax advice, and it is not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any security. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable as of the date of publication, is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness, and may change without notice. Figures attributed to third parties are their estimates. Projections and forecasts are not guarantees of future results. Investors should consult their own financial, legal and tax professionals before making investment decisions. Investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Strategies that use options involve additional risks, including limited participation in market gains, the risk that options do not perform as intended, and changes in distributions. Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances and on current law, which may change.