History Rewards the Investors Who Stay

CEO Insight | By Adam Patti, Chief Executive Officer, VistaShares | November 2026

This has been a week of sharp swings. The Dow rose 3 percent on Wednesday after the midterm results, its best day since April 2025, and chip stocks then fell for a second straight session as investors reassessed the AI trade. Moments like this tempt investors to step aside. Two long-running data sets argue for the opposite.

The midterm record is unbroken.

There have been 19 midterm elections since 1950. The S&P 500 was higher twelve months later after every one of them, with an average gain of 16.6 percent. The early months have been strong as well: since 1970, the index has gained an average of 6.5 percent in the three months after Election Day. That is not a record built in friendly conditions. It spans wars, recessions, oil shocks, inflation spikes and rate hiking cycles.

The reason is uncertainty, not politics.

Markets struggle most when the range of outcomes is wide. A midterm narrows it. Once control of Congress is known, investors can price policy instead of guessing at it. Divided government tends to narrow the range further, because large legislative surprises become harder to pass. Over the long history of midterms, a divided Congress under a Republican president has been followed by a higher market a year later 93 percent of the time.

Fear has been a better entry point than a warning.

The second data set is more striking. Since 1990, the VIX, the market’s main gauge of expected volatility, has closed above 50 on only about 75 trading days, less than 1 percent of all sessions. Those are moments of genuine panic. Yet the S&P 500 delivered positive total returns over the following one, two, three, four and five years every single time. Average forward total returns were roughly 35 percent after one year, 53 percent after two, 55 percent after three, 88 percent after four and 129 percent after five.

This week is a reminder, not a signal.

Volatility rose this week, but it remains far below the extreme levels that have marked major market bottoms. The lesson from those extremes still applies. The sessions that feel worst to hold through have historically been among the most rewarding to own, and investors who sell into fear tend to miss the recovery that follows. A rotation within the market is not the same thing as a market in retreat.

History is a guide, not a guarantee.

Neither record promises the next result. Valuations are elevated, the 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.9 percent, and the Federal Reserve has kept another rate increase on the table. A recession or a policy mistake could break a long streak. The value of these data sets is not certainty. It is perspective: they show how often short-term fear has been the wrong guide to long-term decisions.

The investment implication.

Periods of political change and market stress reward discipline more than prediction. Investors are better served by staying invested, staying diversified and treating volatility as a chance to rebalance toward long-term goals rather than as a reason to leave them. Helping investors hold that discipline when it is hardest is what we build for at VistaShares.

For informational purposes only. This material reflects the views of the author and is not investment, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Index returns are unmanaged and do not reflect fees or expenses; investors cannot invest directly in an index. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. For a prospectus or summary prospectus with this and other information about the Fund, please call (844) 875-2288 or visit www.VistaShares.com. Read the prospectus or summary prospectus carefully before investing.

Foreside Fund Services, LLC, distributor.